Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Thoughts on statistical points

Some stats measures like revenue or pe or institutional holdings are good measures to be used. For instance, if a company is small or medium and getting huge revenue that is an indicator that this is going to blow up quickly. However, if a large or established blue chip is getting revenue .. it is just a continuation of trend and nothing exciting and most likely the volume is high and hence margin on per sales item is usually low. Unless you are talking of an Apple where it banks hundreds of dollars on each of its products. Point is each and every measure has a statistical life, anamoly and a context in which it makes sense. After which it stops to make sense. In the rarified world or post distillation of all such measures in a stock, it is pretty much back down to the basics of business... what are you selling, how much are you making money and how much is your profit? Further, how much are you going to share that profit with your lenders and owners? Analysts from banks have a more direct and true view of things than bloggers and outsiders have. No matter which great letter you subscribe to or how much great of a stock picker, the analysts hear it directly from the horse mouth and the fund managers act based on that. There are then individuals investors like buffet who control the company holdings rather well but the core advice of this blog is to go the bogle way of indexing. Once you do indexing of say 50-60% assets diversified and decently timed thru the troughs of lower ranges buy and holdings and then sell thru the higher ranges to make modest gains and continued holdings, it is the remaining 20% that this blog is telling what to do. Hold the rest in cash. So that you have a good 60-20 holdings-cash split and 20 on stocks that you can identify with or want to get that extra few percentage points.

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